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Increasing worries have emerged about the potential of armed conflict among East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his government's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the desire to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on X from Information Minister the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that moves to validate "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Region

Currently, there are little evidence of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of personnel division of the military, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict ensued, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors stayed at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two signed a statement that the war was finished – a move that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

However ties have since broken down again.